Just a month before the change in administration, former President Biden announced a new climate target that would bring a 61-66 percent reduction in 2035 from 2005 levels in economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions. 

The target is one of the Nationally Determined Contributions, a set of climate goals put in place by each of the United Nations member states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As part of the 2015 Paris Agreement, each Party is required to submit NDCs and is expected to attempt to fulfill the goals they set in place. The Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty, has a goal to limit global temperature increase to 1.5-2 degrees Celcius to reduce the damages of climate change. 

While new and updated NDCs are required every five years as mandated by the Paris Agreement, the next one being in 2025, countries can revise their NDC anytime they wish. The last updated NDC from the U.S. was in 2021.

To achieve President Biden’s 2021 NDC, with a target of a 50-52 percent emission reduction by 2030, the Biden Administration passed the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act, dubbed as the “largest climate investment in U.S. history”, in addition to a plethora of other climate adjacent policies on all levels. 

While not explicitly stated anywhere, Biden’s decision to update the NDC early likely has something to do with the administration change. In 2020, under President Trump, the U.S. became the first country to pull out of the Paris Agreement, with Biden rejoining in 2021.

So, now that Trump is president again, how likely is it for President Biden’s revised NDC to continue under the new administration? Trump had already announced that he would withdraw the U.S. from the agreement yet again. However, pulling out of the Paris Agreement does not void the NDC, it just means the U.S. is no longer obligated to submit revised NDCs, leaving a target in place for non-federal actors to achieve.

“The United States’ new climate commitment offers a clear path forward for states, cities, businesses, and other leaders dedicated to ramping up action over the next four years. Even though the Trump administration may not lift a finger to deliver on this plan, it sets a north star for what the U.S. should be aiming for and could help guide the federal government’s priorities once Trump leaves office in 2029,” said Debbie Weyl, the U.S. acting director of the World Resources Institute, a global research nonprofit, in this statement.

Renewable energy infrastructure will generally stay in place, such as solar photovoltaics and electric vehicles. There is also increased bipartisan support for geothermal and nuclear energy, and an uptick in state and local climate policies. “American industry will keep inventing and keep investing. State, local, and tribal governments will keep stepping up,” Biden said in a video statement.

It is unclear how or if the U.S. will make any federal effort to meet the NDCs, especially with Trump’s pick for administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Lee Zeldin, who has a 14% lifetime score from the League of Conservation Voters.

Based on recent remarks, the Biden Administration seems confident in the U.S.’s ability to achieve its climate targets, both old and new. John Podesta, senior advisor to Biden for international climate policy said, “We’re confident in America’s ability to rally around this new climate goal.”