For decades, low-income urban neighborhoods and communities of color have been subjected to disinvestment as a consequence of redlining, white flight and predatory lending. Historic houses, industrial buildings and vacant lots often appeal to developers as “fixer-uppers.” And with the historical legacies of disinvestment leading to low property values, the once “waste-landed” urban areas become the perfect investment opportunity. Consequently, high-income residents move into marginalized neighborhoods, where they purchase quality homes at discount rates and invest in home improvements. The end result is higher purchase prices and rents on homes throughout the community, eventually outpricing current residents’ ability to pay and leading to the displacement of intergenerational neighborhoods and an erasure of the neighborhood’s cultural character. 

What I’ve described is the concept of gentrification, which is a demographic and economic shift that displaces established working-class communities and communities of color in favor of wealthier newcomers and real estate developers. Some advocates view gentrification as a solution to revitalize under-resourced neighborhoods. Unfortunately, soaring costs of living often displace long-time residents, such that the benefits accrue to a new, wealthier demographic. In the face of climate change, a new form of gentrification has evolved: climate gentrification. 

What is climate gentrification?

Climate change is altering our weather patterns, leading to rising sea levels and more frequent and severe weather events. Such climate impacts and related adaptation strategies, in turn, have resulted in the displacement of vulnerable residents and changes in community characteristics, a set of processes that researchers refer to as climate gentrification. Accordingly, climate gentrification can manifest in a few ways. First, extreme weather events such as hurricanes can rip through low-income neighborhoods, destroying subsidized and affordable housing and displacing hundreds to thousands of residents. As a result, predatory investors and developers are incentivized to buy up the damaged, devalued properties and invest in high-end redevelopment projects that attract a wealthier demographic, resulting in the displacement of long-term residents. Hurricane Katrina is a grim example of how a natural disaster catalyzed climate gentrification, which resulted in the permanent displacement of an estimated 100,000 of its Black residents. While the hurricane did not directly result in gentrification, the destruction of low-income neighborhoods in its wake and the slow recovery processes combined with poor policies forced many residents to relocate, paving the way for redevelopment projects that  catered to more affluent residents and businesses.

We also see climate gentrification as a result of climate migration. This pattern of climate-driven gentrification is becoming an emergent issue across the United States as those financially able to flee from floods, storms, heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires to safer areas are willing to pay a premium for housing, which has led to a drastic rise in property and rental values. In Flagstaff, Arizona, high-income residents from hotter areas of the state are purchasing second and third homes to find relief from the extreme Arizona heat, exacerbating the already skyrocketing housing and rental prices. A similar scenario is unfolding on Florida’s east coast, where I have personally witnessed  desirable waterfront properties with scenic ocean views become places of vulnerability. Consequently, wealthy coastal residents are moving inland to higher elevations and away from the beachfront in an effort to escape threats from sea-level rise and erosion. Many of these inland refuge areas were once deemed “less desirable,” places where low-income communities have generational roots and have endured decades of disinvestment. Now they are threatened once again, but this time by gentrification and displacement. We see this happening in Miami’s historically Black communities of Liberty City, Little Haiti and Little Havana, a predominantly Latinx community. All of these neighborhoods have faced decades of disenfranchisement, but due to their location at higher elevations, residents are beginning to feel the pressure from developers to sell their homes. In recent years, Liberty City, in particular, has experienced a heavy influx of high-income residents, leading to the tripling of housing prices and rental rates, thereby exacerbating Miami’s affordable housing crisis. 

Despite the very real threats from climate change, the physical and environmental impacts are not the only factors fueling climate gentrification. In fact, researchers found that awareness of climate change-induced sea-level rise was not the major factor motivating Miami homebuyers to move inland to higher ground. On the contrary, they found that climate gentrification was largely the result of the high cost of flood insurance rather than projections of sea-level rise. Furthermore, they found that climate gentrification was also driven by rent-seeking behavior on the part of developers who use climate risk to market cheaper inland properties to unwitting buyers and then conspire with policymakers to promote such projects as “sustainable alternatives” for urban redevelopment. 

Indeed, climate gentrification can lead to dramatic increases in property values and rental rates in areas prone to climate-related hazards. However, gentrification can also result from the preemptive efforts by cities to respond to potential threats from climate change by implementing eco-friendly infrastructure and green amenities. This phenomenon is referred to as green gentrification, whereby investments in community resources such as bike trails, public transit hubs, parks, green spaces and greenways attract luxury housing development, which leads to increases in real property values and rents and the subsequent displacement of long-term residents. While climate gentrification and green gentrification are distinct phenomena, they are related concepts that both deal with the relationships between urban development, environmental sustainability and social equity. Like green gentrification, climate gentrification can result from investments in green infrastructure to promote climate resilience. Such climate-resilient infrastructure includes seawalls, detention basins and canals, greenways, and elevated houses and streets. 

Although preemptive action by cities to develop climate-resilient infrastructure is laudable, there is the potential for negative impacts to accrue to socially disadvantaged communities. As discussed, such development more often than not attracts investments from affluent residential developers and businesses, and the subsequent housing market may be too high for long-time residents to afford. Furthermore, funding for these measures tends to be expensive and the responsibility to pay for it falls upon all the taxpayers. Unfortunately, those most vulnerable to climate change effects tend to contribute the least to greenhouse gas emissions, and it's these very same community members who may be unable to afford the tax increase required to fund climate-resilient measures and the failure to pay property tax fuels displacement vulnerabilities.

Climate change isn’t going anywhere. How can we move forward without gentrification?

Low-income and socially marginalized groups are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change effects and gentrification. Therefore, moving forward, scientists should further analyze the social consequences of climate gentrification and the displacement of marginalized communities. Local governments should implement policies that prioritize community sustainability over economic growth. Such policies should safeguard intergenerational communities from skyrocketing rental rates, tax raises and displacement. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is leading the way in addressing this concern by funding research on gentrification in inland communities and methods for stabilizing property tax rates in these areas. 

Building climate-resilient infrastructure can play a key role in climate adaptation efforts; however, the main funding source is taxes, which can unintentionally harm socially disadvantaged communities. To combat these vulnerabilities, local governments should look for other sources to fund the development of climate-resilient infrastructure. In Miami, residents voted in favor of Miami’s forever bond, which granted the government the ability to borrow from the municipal bond market to fund climate adaptation strategies. Further, using tax revenue from tourism could also serve as an effective method of funding climate resilience projects in areas prone to climate change risks that have a booming tourism industry.

In addition, climate mitigation and adaptation should be grounded in equity and justice. Miami’s Sea Level Rise Committee is taking this into account by adding social and climate justice seats to their board. Further, social equity must be at the forefront of urban planning and development projects. Using participatory planning measures that involve the community in the entire planning process can help policymakers better understand a community's cultural values and map cultural assets to ensure their consideration in decision-making processes.

Climate change is not going away, and socially marginalized groups will continue to bear the brunt of its effects. The increasing severity and frequency of climate-related weather events and climate-induced natural disasters will alter property values, destroy infrastructure and displace vulnerable communities, thereby spurring climate gentrification. The issues of climate change and gentrification are complex and interrelated, but with collaborative efforts from scientists, local governments and communities, we can work toward solutions that protect the most vulnerable among us while building a more resilient and equitable future for all.