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Impact of technology may outpace effects of climate change in certain parts of US

New research led by the University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability's (SEAS) Center for Sustainable Systems (CSS) provides utilities and policymakers with forecasts to better prepare for future peaks in energy demand in the United States.

“We focused on the extreme peak demands because we want to keep our power systems reliable,” said Mai Shi, a postdoctoral research fellow in CSS. “If the system works for moderate conditions but fails in extremes, it doesn’t work. That’s not how we build the power grid. We need to plan for extremes.”

Shi and colleagues modeled how those extremes will evolve between 2020 and 2060, focusing on heating and cooling, which are among the largest electricity consumers in both residential and commercial buildings. The team analyzed how these would shape peak power demand extremes against the backdrop of two important changes: climate change and the growing advancement and use of insulation and heat pumps. 

Michael Craig, an associate professor at SEAS and in Industrial and Operations Engineering, was the senior author on the study. The research team also included Ziqi Wei of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Flavio Lehner of Cornell University.

Read the full press release on the Michigan News website. 

Study: Disentangling the evolving effects of climate change and technology diffusion on building electricity demand (DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2612343123)